The Perfect Storm Has Arrived
A few of you may have read the article “The Cloud is Falling” that discussed my outlook for the photography industry in some detail, less than half a year ago. That article was the impetus behind this blog in fact. My overall thought back then was that the still/print industry was fundamentally changing – both due to technological advances and market forces – and that still photographers needed to embrace new ideas and technologies.
A lot has happened in the past 6 months – most notably the economy (and on a more positive note, game changing technological advances such DSLRs that shoot 1080p video.) My outlook for the print industry is now quite dire – in many ways this economic downturn may lead to an incredible series of layoffs and failures in the upcoming year that our industry has never seen before. What I assumed would happen over the next 3-5 years – may happen in the next year or two – precipitated by this economic downturn that we’re experiencing. (The stock market (INDU) in case you haven’t noticed – is approaching its lowest level in more than a decade.) The purpose of this post is to make sure that all photographers are aware that 2009 may be an incredibly tough year for everyone – and for you to make sure that you prepare yourself for it.First of all, let me be clear: I am not an economics major nor do I portend to be able to see the future. The signs are so crystal clear however, that I feel obliged to share them here.
Ironically, my business is currently experiencing the most incredible growth and excitement amidst all of this negativity – but it should be a sign to you that I am nonetheless choosing to be quite conservative. Things have been so busy that I have literally not had a single day off in 7 weeks – and new opportunities seem to pop up almost daily. (I’m sorry that I haven’t been more prolific with this blog as well – I have a lot of content on the way however)
I just spent the last two weeks in the midwest (Leo Burnett, VSA Partners) as well as the west coast visiting Industrial Light and Magic (one of George Lucas’ complexes,) Dreamworks Animation, Apple, SmugMug, Disney with a few incredibly talented people at those organizations and a top Hollywood director/producer in Los Angeles. By all means, I should be ecstatic. And if the economic outlook were good – I’d be bouncing off the walls. But truth be told, I’m just positive, but realistic given the economy’s outlook.
So why does this matter to you? Well – I’m not going to try to predict what is going to happen to the stock market here. I will tell you that while I’m not a market wiz – I’ve been quite lucky over the past few years and this was my best year in the stock market – of all years… (and no I wasn’t shorting.) I sold all of my tech stock on the day before the worst 4 day decline of the Nasdaq for the year (at the time!)- and this ensuing downturn. What I will discuss, is what I’m seeing around me, and how that may possibly impact all of us.
First of all – newspapers and magazines are facing the absolute perfect storm – which is by definition a contradiction in terms – a perfect storm of course is a devastating one. The old world print media relies on advertising, and readers – and I went over that in the “Cloud is Falling” article. The problem is that as we all know, both subscribers and advertisers are seeing a very very sharp decline. This is why you’re seeing incredibly cut backs in budgets, and massive layoffs. Publications are cutting the fat – and more often than not – into the bone – and guaranteeing their extinction long term.
In fact one of the major magazines in the US (that must remain nameless) one that we all look up to and hold up on a pedestal – is in absolute panic. I was told by that magazine’s top management that “we haven’t sold a single ad for next year!” I responded incredulously: “Not a SINGLE ad?” And he clarified – that sure some ads had been sold – but their major backers were the automobile Giants of Detroit – and that they had not bought a single ad for 2009. As you know most of the large automakers in Detroit are on the verge of bankruptcy, begging for a federal bailout as I type…
Therefore – I’m not surprised at all to see the massive layoffs, and magazines folding. In fact there’s a site dedicated to the dead magazine of the week – MagazineDeathPool.
These days I don’t fight too much for higher day rates or huge production expenses when it comes to magazines – the writing is on the wall: they simply don’t have it and are trying to find a way to survive the storm. A few weeks ago – I didn’t even bother asking a print client to charter a helicopter – I suggested we charter a small boat. Believe it or not – they weren’t even able to afford that… these are the signs that things are dire. And this was no small publication mind you…
Here’s what has me ultimately concerned, and this is the real sign of bad things: companies are slowly (I’d say rapidly) completely clamping down on their advertising budgets. And when companies stop spending money on ads, things get REAL bad, real quick for everyone. The ad agencies suffer, the producers, assistants and commercial photographers suffer, and the newspapers suffer – all the way down to newspaper staff as there are no ads to run, and there is no money to pay salaries….
One recent example: I’ve been working with one of the world’s top “talent” (I’m being vague on purpose.) He and I are going to do a project together, and all along our plan was for him to reach out to his numerous sponsors to pay for the project. One by one, each advertisers has expressed great excitement, only to come back to tell this top “talent” that their HQ has told them that all advertising money has been frozen. It’s one thing for them to turn me down – it says a lot for them to turn the “talent” down who is one of the hottest commodities out there.
This has me truly worried and I’m quite pessimistic to be honest. I’ve met a lot of top advertising agencies, and production companies, and heard the same things: their staffs are being cut (Disney cut 50% of their staff in one division, and Pixar 30% in another) and their budgets are being SLASHED. They were all already being asked to do more with less – but now that’s being taken to a new level. You’ll also see that a lot of the startups that rely on Venture Capital cash flow – are going belly up. No one has “cash lying around” to invest in anything right now…
What this means for me is that although I haven’t had a day off in weeks, and that common sense would have me hiring 1-2 new people on my staff – I’m holding off. My business has grown 30% or more year to year since I left my staff job at The New York Times – and is showing no sign of slowing down. YET – I am preparing myself for a 50% cut in income next year (that of course if my worst case scenario – I’m hoping it will be more in the 15% – 30% range.) Sure – that’s drastic. But it should be a sign of how pessimistic I am – or in my opinion, I think that I’m just being realistic. In fact I spoke with a top commercial photographer who makes over a million dollars a year – and he said he wouldn’t be surprised to see his income go down to between $100,000 – $200,000 in 2009. I’m afraid that many studio managers and assistants will lose their jobs in the upcoming year.
So are we crazy? I certainly hope so! I hope I’m DEAD WRONG. But my advice to you (the readers of this blog and fellow photographers) would be to save your money, not spend or expand too quickly right now, and make sure to treat your current customers like gold. Don’t hesitate to negotiate with them (to their favor) during these times, because when they tell you their budgets have shrunk – they’re not making that up. Be happy that they have any budget at all. Also – if you’re eyeing that $30K digital back – now is the time to rent it and bill that to your client… by no means should you be voluntarily entering in to debt right now. If you’re a student – understand that I feel your pain: I’ve seen a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist who is unable to get a job right now… and if you’re in business school – well, Wall Street isn’t going to hire anyone anytime soon – so it’s time to go move in with the folks for a year or so… or in some cases go back to school and pick up a Masters in another area as I’ve seen a few family friends do…
I’ll be publishing a LOT of updates on this blog in the upcoming two weeks. Both on some of my recent trips – and also on some of the recent work I’ve been doing. I’ll discuss some developments on the film project I had mention with SmugMug as well as projects that I’m currently working on or have just wrapped. It’s been an incredibly busy few weeks, filled with great excitement and opportunity and wonderful creativity – so only positive news to come from hereon out.
I do find it necessary to publish and share these thoughts for now. Take it for what you will. As I said: if I’m dead wrong – I’ll be very happy to eat crow and celebrate with each and every one of you. It’s not just a question of “if” things will eventually turn around – just when. My guess is not in the next 3-6 months – and that’s why I’m being careful. Shelter yourself through this storm – and be in good position to spread your wings when the sky clears.
This is actually a good thing for the print industry.
The economics of going to print every month make less and less sense. It’s too much overhead. In a 5 or 10 years, it will be a niche market.
Luckily, this is happening at the same time that technology is improving. Smart phones are becoming ubiquitous, and flexible e-Ink displays are finally making it closer to market.
Once these “print” giants are distributed exclusively in a digital format, they’ll see their costs go down and their revenue go up. Advertisers will appreciate the sophisticated ad metrics that they already get from web ads.
Sure, some magazines will bite it in this transitional period, and that could make it challenging for some photographers to find work. But a lot of great new properties will spring up to fill the void, and photography isn’t going anywhere. No matter how we get our magazines, they still need to be filled with quality photos.
Well, on the flip side, the wedding business, at least up in Canada in Toronto is doing well. I think the lesson we’re all learning is that it’s great to specialize in one thing while it lasts, but that you have to be able to change direction and offer many options and choices to survive.
I totally believe in the media world’s transition to something new.
If we don’t embrace this change with intelligent planning, then change will embrace us with a cold, icy grip.
However, I also think that the new HD video in digital SLRs will open up other avenues for us still photographers.
For instance, instead of just photographing a local high school football/volleyball/basketball/soccer/etc. game, you can also provide video for websites. It doesn’t have to be HD — it could though — but that is priceless, high quality footage that small town online newspapers and TV stations could purchase. That same footage could be used in selling Blu-Ray & DVD discs of a team’s season.
There are many avenues to approach the coming technology.
Despite the economic downturns, opportunities are in the mix.
Mr. Laforet, thanks for keeping us little-time guys informed about what’s going on up-top!
So NGM hasn’t sold a single car-ad for 2009? Incredible.
This is a very sobering, but also very informative, post. Thanks for the heads up.
Vincent Laforet Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
I didn’t say NGM…
Great post, Vincent.
It’s certainly sobering to see someone with your experience making preparations for such hard times ahead, and confirms my worst fears about the industry in general.
That being said, knowledge of the situation doesn’t make the facts any easier to work with, especially considering that before this whole downturn I was getting ready to start trying to make photography my main source of income.
I assume you’d absolutely recommend against trying to enter the market at this point, or are there still niche areas that might remain relatively stable?
Stacey Axelrod Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
As a college senior about to graduate with a Photojournalism degree, I really enjoy reading your thoughts on the industry. I look forward to more posts on this topic.
I have the same question as Dan Lurie: Do you think we students and aspiring photographers should steer away from the industry, wait out the storm, or just put up our umbrellas and hope for the best?
Vincent Laforet Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
No – you need to stay focused on your goal. BUT – stay nimble – embrace change and new technology. If your aim is to work at NGM or the NYTimes as a still photographer – you’re headed for a brick wall. If you want to work for those organizations (or others!!!) doing a mix of photography and other media – you’ll be just fine. Find a way to set the pace for the industry – don’t try to let them set the pace for you. Be a leader – not a follower (yet understand that you are working within a “system” and need to respect some rules – and break others intelligently and with finesse – and you’ll be fine.
Gao Zheng Reply:
November 25th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Me too. I am facing with the same situation like Stacey. But now I want to go study photojournalists in the U.S. There are two ways, to get a MFA degree or take a ICP one-year certificate pj program. After I read your passage, I think it’s so difficult to get a job after graduation……
Very, very well written Vincent. Not quite yet the perfect storm. My background before hi-tech has me watching the lovefest between Putin, Cuba, China and Iran. There is a 4 mile wide boy of water off the coast of Iran, The Strait of Hormuz, that set’s everything off if I think what going to happen happens. Then, what we are seeing in the US right now is going to be longed for.
Great post, well written and with some good points. But…
Your expectation to have your profits cut by 50% will probably be somewhat self caused. What made the current world wide financial crisis what it is today? Banks doing shady business? Nah, I’d say most of it is expectations of us common men that puts us all in some kind of pack mentality that the end is nigh.
Sean Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
I think this is an important point to understand. There are some extremely serious problems in the economy, especially when it comes to print publication. But many of the problems with the economy in general are caused by self-fulfilling prophecies. We say that consumer spending is going to take a nosedive, so companies lay off a bunch of workers in preparation. Then those workers can’t afford Christmas, so consumer spending takes a nosedive. Was the original prediction right, or did the reaction to the prediction cause the outcome? Similarly, Vincent is worried about the business and worried about people being out of work. So worried, in fact, that he’s holding off on hiring when he otherwise would do so. The outcome? More unemployment in the industry!
Don’t get me wrong: I’m NOT saying that being extremely cautious is a mistake. I’m not even saying that cutting staff (or freezing hiring) is a mistake. Businesses have to make their own decisions, and if you’re the only one in your sector who hasn’t cut costs, you’re probably going to suffer — holding fast would only work if everyone did it at once. But it’s a shame that so much of this is caused by negative sentiment and panic. I believe it’s magnified the original problem profoundly.
Vincent Laforet Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
I agree with both of you. BUT – I think it’s just a irresponsible to hire people and have to lay them off in 3 months because business is not what I had hoped. I think it’s best to ensure my current employees stay employed.
This thinking however is indeed EXACTLY a part of the problem – you’re right on point. Problem is: I’m a small corporation at the mercy of the big ones and their spending. If they don’t spend – I don’t grow. It’s that simple. When I see them stop spending – I see the writing on the wall. And I’m not going to ignore it. I have a family and employees to feed.
Oscar Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I don’t think you should ignore it. Act responsibly towards your employees. The basic problem, which John Nash, nobel price winner, highlighted is our instict of “saving our selves” and our business or family in time of crisis that drives this making it what is is today. Somehow we need to work together or be forced to by government intervention, directly or indirectl.
What should we do about it? Go communist? We all know how that has worked out for those who have tried. Should we let the market forces run rampart and have the market fix itself? I’d say somewhere in between.
mr L. thank you for your well thought out post. It makes me kind of nervous to think of what is happening to an industry, newspapers, that I am trying to get into.
as a young kid from Hawai‘i im a little scared for my future in this ever-changing world and industry. perhaps if i get the Summer internship with the NYT i’ll see you around? =)
cheers // kent
My first day of college, Econ 101:
Prof: “Can anyone tell me what economics is about?”
Class: “Money!”
Prof: “No. It’s about the allocation of scarce resources.”
Same was true then, same is true now. Recessions happen. Bubbles burst. We will come out of this recession and surge to unimaginable heights. Then we will fall into recession again.
That’s the way it works. The economy follows a cyclical pattern, not a straight line. Whether or not you survive matters how you handle the ups just as much as you handle the downs.
i’ve worked in TV commercial advertising for 14 years at companies such as a UPM/Producer with top companies like radical & RSA (which are both doing fine). everyone around me has never seen anything like this before. I have been fortunate to be continuously busy, but the majority of people are struggling. The top level directors have been taking all the work out there and the middle and entry level directors are stuck without anything. Some production companies are putting employees on 4 day weeks. Crew members are inundating us with request for work and it should be sooo busy right now with the holiday season and the superbowl. i think your advice is solid and much appreciated.
While not directly related to photography (as I’m not a professional yet)… my main industry I’m involved in is supply of mining equipment and mining construction.
We’ve layed off nearly 70% of our work force in the last 6 weeks, due to market turmoil, which has lead our regular clients and prospective clients to hold current and future works.
In our city we’d had two major projects in the loops getting ready to kick off, enough to keep us going for up to four or five years… These are major economical boosts for Australia I might add… Nobody really knows what is going to happen for now, but it’s become very, very quiet.
Thanks for the write up though, it’s good to see it from everybody’s perspective… I fear there are many people who don’t really understand how directly affected we are by the current market.
” I think it’s just a irresponsible to hire people and have to lay them off in 3 months because business is not what I had hoped.”
Exactly, the proper thing to do. You not hiring two people is not causing the downturn, that was starting to roll a long time ago. Everyone needs to slow down, trim back, not jump to rash decisions… use this “off season” to regroup future goals, and relearn how to live frugally and wisely from a financial standpoint.
Having said that, the cash from selling my 5D is sitting in my camera bag, and I fully plan on helping the economy by LEAPING on one of those as soon as it’s available. 😉
Paul Reply:
November 17th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
One of thos 5D Mark II’s, that is!
Recessions are all about confidence by consumers. When they lose confidence in their ability to keep earning money, they stop spending. Then factories scale back and lay off employees. Then those employees can’t spend money, they have none. Its a visous circle that is only remedied by consumers gaining confidence and starting to spend money again. This is why the government is bailing out financial institutions, if banks won’t or can’t loan money freely, less money is spent and the cycle gets worse.
One good thing, its election year, and people are always hopeful that change will bring better times, and that is good.
Everyone deciding to save money and cut back for the coming recession will guarantee that it arrives. We should all google “the Paradox of Thrift”.
I totally agree with your perspective on this. I had over 5 large commercial jobs get put on hold…and then eventually get canceled due to budgets evaporating. For me this was a major revenue loss for the year, and marketing loss for the kind of photo work I do that I certainly needed as a photographer still trying to make it into the larger circles. I even slashed my normal rates in half for one of them just to get the work! They just couldn’t get the money released. Good luck to all.
So is this a good time for us to start selling our prints online like yourself? It seems to be a polarizing topic.. the gallery vs. online print debate. I personally would like to start selling prints online with the perfect storm coming up but many think it’s a bad route. There’s a ongoing conversation on my blog… blog.jeremycowart.com. Sorry to pimp my blog but I hope it’s relevant. Thanks for this GREAT post by the way.
Great post, great advice to follow. I agree with the fact that no matter how dark the times may be, we will still need top quality photos. For me, it’s still a good time to learn more about photography. Thanks!
thanks a lot for the insight, vincent!
I really should have studied something other than photography for the last 3 years…
It’true hard times are coming…
There something you have to remember in this times there are a some new possibilites that you must pick.
Vincent Laforet Reply:
November 19th, 2008 at 12:52 am
Well said! Keep the faith everyone – the point of this post was not to scare everyone – but to scare those who were about to buy that $30K back or make a big risky investment… not the time to overextend yourself! All we be fine with time. Just be careful with your finances…
I’m a simple amateur photographer, but I’ve had plenty of time to develop my skill set: I’ve been unemployed for almost four years (here in SW Ohio) with a degree in Accounting. Never thought I would have trouble finding work, but this is the new reality. We are all in serious trouble.
Paul Reply:
November 18th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
I’m in SW Ohio also, and the layoffs are brewing at my company. That’s a shame to hear, even with a degree. Wow. I still say let’s use this “off season” to increase our skills… it’ll swing back eventually… right?? 😉
Interesting piece about the economy and the auto market – and how it’s affecting everyone across the globe… here is the link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/business/economy/19ports.html?_r=1&hp
I don’t know about all this. I think we need to focus on the work we have rather than the work we don’t have or wont have. Build up what clients we do have, get out and meet new ones. Sure things are bad, but it’s not going to stay like this forever. I for one am bored/depressed with all the doom and gloom, I can’t help but think it is, to some degree, a self fulfilling prophecy.
All respect though Vincent, this is a great blog. Just my thoughts.
Vincent Laforet Reply:
November 19th, 2008 at 9:28 am
No problem David – I’m incredibly optimistic myself. Yet one can’t stick one’s head in the sand and hope things will “just be ok.” It’s important to always have perspective on what’s going on in the real world. Talent will always find work – and the cream always rises to the top. But it’s important never to lose sight of the “big picture.” Both in terms of one’s career – and the economy at large. So absolutely STAY POSITIVE!!!! But also be: REALISTIC and AWARE and INFORMED.
Who charters helicopters for editorials?
Colin Reply:
November 19th, 2008 at 11:10 am
apparently not that client anymore
Hey Vincent, this was a really unsettling read coming from someone who normally seems so optimistic.
Keep your chin up, you’ll find the silver lining in all of this. (Probably before most of us do)
When old laws don’t work anymore, new ones must be invented. New opportunities is what I read on the wall. Please let’s put on our thinking caps so we can creatively gun for a lion’s share of new future.
With print the primary source of so much original journalism, an overlooked casualty may be quality information and public discourse.
“Art” photography is always difficult to sell, even if you are a “name”. I know several artists who were well represented in NYCity and failed to sell anything in 36months of representation. Their work was brilliant. But not brilliant enough to separate buyers from their money.
“Media” photography will likely continue. Folks who have money will be marketed to and will remain a viable outlet for such photographic services. I’m thinking fashion and maybe sports (though that’s a little iffy).
“Wedding” photography will still be good, but pay might not be so great due to the economic climate where many people are out of work or underpaid.
I’m sure I missed a significant niche, but this is in broad how I see things for the photography markets.
The coming economic depression will effect everyone except for the already monied rich. They will ride this downturn out just fine. For the rest of us, it’ll likely be a terrible 10 or 15 years.
As Alex points out, booms and busts are cyclical. But for many areas of professional photography this recession is a watershed moment. Print publishing, which is still the financial lifeblood of commercial, editorial and corporate photography was already rapidly loosing readers and advertisers. The current recession will only accelerate the loss of advertising dollars and hasten the death of many print publications.
General estimates (for what they’re worth) are that this recession will last 18 – 36 months. Once ad spending does begin to increase again significantly, fewer ad dollars will go to print and more will go to Web, mobile, games and product placement. Much of the costs of creating an ad campaign that previously went to photographers will instead go to videographers, graphic designers, user experience designers and 3-D modelers.
Of course commercial, editorial and corporate photography won’t disappear. There will still be some print publications as well as billboards, bus shelters, brochures and other marketing and promotional needs that only photography can fill. But much of that will be filled with low-cost microstock whenever possible.
These areas of photography will exist for a long time to come but when the pendulum starts swinging back to more prosperous times, these areas of photography are not likely to share in the prosperity.
What can photographers do?
– Specialize in areas that aren’t directly dependent on ad spending such as weddings, events, fashion, portraits, industrial, etc.
– Stay away from any area that can be filled by microstock (i.e. lifestyle, travel, etc.)
– Learn to shoot and edit video
– Network and market like crazy to make sure that you are not one of the many who will be squeezed out
Colin Reply:
November 21st, 2008 at 12:59 pm
What reason do you have to believe that original commercial photography will suffer due to microstock once the recession is over. Frankly, I don’t think there is any reasoning behind that statement other than fear.
Companies will always have an interest in building their brands and exclusivity.
Jon Hornstein Reply:
November 26th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Images used in ads are “commercial” work and there is plenty of stock being used in ads. You used the word “original” not me.
If you’ve been shooting commercial assignments of couples walking on the beach at sunset, then you’re in competition with microstock. Your images might be better, but it’s touch to compete with $1 per image.
And certainly not all commercial work competes with microstock, but a large number of campaigns that promote financial services, health care, and even travel destination are being illustrated with stock photography, some of it microstock.
And after the recession, print magazines won’t suddenly reappear in any meaningful number. Much of the ad dollars that supported them will have moved online, and much of the creative dollars will have moved from photography, which is the ideal medium for print magazines, to video, 3-D modeling, even product placement, which is generally (but not always) better suited to the online and mobile world.
Commercial photography isn’t going to disappear, but the dollars that have supported it in recent years will shrink substantially.
There are a number of economic factors at work today. The demise of the print media industry as a result of digital media is a large factor at play. Most of my income comes from print. My experience suggests that digital media usage fees, if any are only 5-10 percent of print usage fees. Where will photographers make up that profit? In my market, videographers have already created the expectation that clients will own the footage – and the fees are anywhere from 1/3 to 1/6 of normal still photography fees. Will we be working three times as hard to make the same amount of money? The new model that I see is really the old model of doing more for less. Basic economics due to the law of supply and demand. And it is worse in the smaller markets than in NY and LA, I can tell you…
Perfect storm? Funny, that’s the exact term I’ve been using in writing and discussions in other areas. CASH is king. If you have a budget, redo it for worst case and then do everything you can to make it a outstanding year.
Here in rural Iowa, before ethanol, you had recession about 8 out of 10 years (no kidding). There was the farm crisis of the 80’s, when fear gripped everything.
How do you survive?
1) If you don’t have a budget – produce 3, a best case, average case and worst case. Use the worst case for budgeting. Use the best one to set sales goals. Compare every month. Adjust as needed. Be heartless. It’s your key to survival.
2) Understand the difference between expenses and investments. Advertising and promotion are investments. Most will pull in their horns. Don’t be like them. Talk to new clients, learn new techniques first and promote the fact you provide MORE. Even if you don’t get jobs initially, eventually things will turn around, and when they do, you will be in position to maximize opportunities.
3) Look for opportunities because some people will exit and not adapt. Change is your friend. Change is like a wave – a very BIG wave. You always want to be in front of the wave because if you’re behind it – you’ve drowned. By keeping your overhead low, you can provide more value and still make money.
4) Vince is absolutely correct when he says don’t invest in $30K digital backs. Conserve cash, but look for opportunities. Someone is going to buy one of those backs, and in six months will want to dump it at any price. If you’ve saved your resources, you may be able to take advantage of the situations.
5) Here’s a little secret that works in the real world: A simple economic indicator that will tell you when things are starting to get better: Fork lift sales. Get close to someone who sells them in your market. When he starts to get orders, that will be the indication that things are improving.
Remember, be in front of the wave. If you can survive, you’ll really thrive when things get better. In other words, survive to thrive.
Not all photographers are created equal, nor are all photo business or market segments. Talking about the photo industry as a single unit gives an imprecise and unrealistic impression that we all move in unison up or down. Like you (vincent) my business is booming quite well in this market, as it is for many others that I know. The “editorial” market, while large as a singular vertical segment by itself, is tiny in the larger economic space of the broad photo industry. So, if you’re talking to editorial photographers who only shoot for this one vertical segment, fine… and perhaps advertising photographers should also be wary if they specialize in markets or industries that are also on the pinch. But again, that doesn’t apply to “everyone.”
If photographers really want to understand how to position themselves in tomorrow’s market opportunities, they need to be cognizant of developments that affect them. One of the few universal factors that DOES affect every photographer is the role of the web and other internet-related technologies and marketplaces.
My blog talks about these developments and how photographers should prepare themselves for that future. I agree with the spirit of Vincent’s advice that a new paradigm is required, and photographers need to rethink their business models, but I get more into the actual details of how to go about it. Read my blog here.
dan
Dan Heller Reply:
November 20th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
my blog entry didn’t come up right due to how this site handles html. so, the real link is http://danheller.blogspot.com
http://www.PDNPulse.com/2008/11/starledger-photo-editor-now-working-in-mailroom.html
Vince,
This is great advice. Like you, I’m going against the grain, and my business has never been better. Luckily, I work with a lot of long-term contracts, so 2009 (which should be awful for so many people) is already pretty much sewn up for me as an even better year. But I’m living WAY underneath my means and holding off on hiring sorely needed staff. Still, I will be keenly interested to see what happens to all this fantastic talent.
Vincent. It feels like Armageddon to us here, that’s for damn sure. We WERE a 300K or so a year NYC commercial shop, shooting for a few publicly traded fashion companies, some advertising, a few recurring catalogs, and one of those huge (there aren’t many) photography agencies. We also occasionally shoot right next to you for Cunard We’ve seen every client we have cancel or radically cut their shooting in October, November, December. We did 90K in Quarter 3, predicting 25K in Quarter 4. Spent half of October visiting with our clients, trying to plan what we could. Laid off our studio manager yesterday, had no choice. Going to let her work from her desk, shoot in the studio for free with our gear, etc. Spending alot of time negotiating down our monthly nut, trying to figure out how to save what we can, not lose the studio. (overhead there is low, we’re a co op of 3 photographers). It’s a bloodbath. I’m hoping for a better January, shooting Fall 2009 catalogs and books, but if that doesn’t happen, I think we’re DONE… That’s all the news you can use. On the plus side, try Rosemount Grenache, under $7 a bottle, and not as bad as you might think!
Hey, I just caught the tail end of the news tonight, and they were talking about packaging websites together much like cable packages. So you would no longer have full internet access without paying a large premium. Is this for real, or did I just misunderstand.
If you wanted sports, you would get TSN, ESPN etc, if you wanted the new package you would get NYT, Globe and Mail, etc..
Has anyone else heard anything about this, if it is true, what would happen to the millions of people who market themselves this way?
Well, Vincent. You are part of the problem.
The less you spend, the worse the economy gets.
The world needs confidence, growth and spending,
not negativity and curtailment. Starts some new
projects, launch new ideas. Go buy something.
maljo
Vincent Laforet Reply:
November 23rd, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Maljo – tell you what – write a book about this – and I’ll make sure to buy it – if you can convince me then – I’ll listen. It’s one thing to be a major corporation making these cut backs – another to be a small business… I’m not cutting back by the way – just curtailing my expansion – or expanding creatively – this is something many seem to be missing. What I do effects the economy in an insignificant way – I’m far different from major corporations… sticking your head in the sand and refusing to see the writing on the wall – is the wrong thing to do in my opinion. I’ll write more about this tonight.
James Reply:
December 11th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
It’s a mixed bag; if I recall correctly there is more small business than big business in the US. Consumer spending and small business employment have to go up for us to improve the economy (sure there are other things too). I don’t think big business is going to get us there. Lean, mean, innovative companies are the ones that will survive and thrive. Looking at this a different way: if you can make your company work in this environment you will kick-ass once we’re out of the woods.
Remember that in tough times the entertainment industry can do well (if they offer the masses a cheap respite from despair).
I own an Epson 7600 and have printed 99% of my own work. I think this will also affect the entire industry as more of us do it all in house.
“when they tell you their budgets have shrunk – they’re not making that up”
This time they’re telling the truth. The last four times the publishers said this, they lied. The lie was, of course, a way to find photographers willing to create editorial work for ever less money.
Vince and Dan, thank you for your sober comments, the situations in Australia are very similar to the USA and UK.
my business has all but ceased, i’ve been operating from home and using local studios or shooting commercial assignments on location, no assistants, no retouchers, i retain only my bookeeper.
i’m attempting to create another area for selling stock and trying to use the various small business networks to generate some assignments – but this is very difficult mainly due to the paralysis of fear by these micro businesses and that they can now produce a fairly basic but workable image themselves with the new Cannon’s and Nikon’s.
however some of my colleagues in Melbourne are working well, they have reduced their pricing and are value adding their works.
weddings are similar and portrait bookings are either dead or surviving depending on who i talk to.
2009 appears very scary, we’re in for another long drought.
time to diversify, think very creatively – or find a recession proof business as a core activity and pursue photography part time? who know – yet.
best to all
Rob
this is why, I am so grateful that my skill set, once complete – will be extremely diversified…my education I hope will not only get me employed but also get me noticed…because as we all know – you need a tool set in the digital arts/computer arts….regardless, this post, Vincent ..hasn’t made me worried, but instead – reminds me that I need to be flexible in my skill set…thanks and best to everyone!
Hey Vincent,
I just wanted to share this. I wrote a blog posting in direct response to your article here. I think there’s a lot of opportunity for photographer’s out there. You just have to keep your eyes open and look for it. If you would like to read or comment on what I wrote, please take a look:
http://blog-pix.blogspot.com/2008/11/re-perfect-storm-has-arrived.html
It is not all bad, crisis means also oportunity for those who are prepared for it. Many things will change but not always for bad.
Newspapers, magazines and media are in despair, but why to act like it is a surprise? One can get only so much infomercials and corporate press releases dressed like editorials. This is why we read a free blog by Vincent instead of paying for a magazine.
Very informative post. Thanks.
Has anyone made a pass through the magazine rack at their local grocery store lately? Most titles are about one half the thickness they were just a few years ago! It’s shocking, and though I’ve accepted the gradual decline for years, it’s quite sobering to hold what used to be a substantial magazine and wonder why it’s still perfect-bound, given the scant number of pages. Clearly as advertising revenue has descreased so has the editorial content in an attempt to maintain the publishers’ desired ratio. Question is, how long can they hold out? And how much of the decrease is due to the current state of the economy vs the internet?
I’m sure glad that I found your website, it had all of the information I’ve been looking for